News Center

Contact Us

Qinhuangdao Saikangguangdian Electrical Co., LTD.
Add: No.13 Building, yongdinghe Road, EATD Zone, Qinhuangdao, Hebei, China.
P.C.: 066004
Fax: +86-335-8040870
Mobile:13343351633
Http://www.pv-connector.com
E-mail：chinasaikang@163.com

Location：Index 》 News Center

Estimation of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation in China

Distributed power generation benefits have been cloud cover fog around, different opinions. Through the field investigation of the PV power generation project of Leshan Xintianyuan Company, this paper compares the data of several "early crabs" and "crab" power generation projects running in China for nearly one year. The distributed photovoltaic power generation in most parts of the country For industrial use, the conclusion of the cost recovery within five years is basically credible. Such as power generation for life will be extended to 6.4 years, such as matching a certain degree of local subsidies, back to this time can be reduced by nearly half of the "private power generation" benefits of the mysterious veil finally opened the tip of the iceberg.


At present, there are many factors that determine the benefits of distributed PV projects in China. There are five main items: local sunshine conditions, power generation use, installation cost, local subsidy and local electricity price. One of the difficulties in estimating the benefits of photovoltaic power generation is the accurate grasp of power generation. Another important factor in determining the viability of power generation projects is local matching subsidies. The following two factors and the various types of regional power generation benefits were analyzed.
First, the amount of electricity
Power generation has always been a difficult task of photovoltaic power generation. As the photovoltaic power generation in China is still a new thing, the use of examples around very little, even if there is not running time is very long, so its economic benefits have been mainly concentrated in the theoretical calculation, can not be effectively verified with examples. And the theoretical calculation involves a number of factors experience and assumptions, the results and the actual tend to differ greatly. The industrys life-cycle benefits of photovoltaic power generation projects has always been different opinions, and one of the distributed power generation because of their individual situation is different, the efficiency estimate is the difference between the poor. The reliable grasp of the project power generation has always been a difficult solution to solve the benefits.
Calculate the amount of power generation of a variety of theoretical projections of a lot, to convince people, it is better to temporarily put aside all the theoretical projection model, from the reality, from the collection of a large number of Oration data, with several cases to reflect the relatively solid and detailed power generation case release data , Combined with personally to the side of the power generation example Leshan new days of the companys control cabinet power meter collection of first-hand information comparison verification, to pseudo-true, to calculate a reliable practical value of power generation efficiency. The following is a collection of examples of data analysis process:
Domestic photovoltaic power generation case actual comprehensive efficiency
Undefined
From the three examples of analysis, compared with the local sunshine hours, the actual power generation efficiency of about 65%. Personally to Leshan Xintianyuan company to collect first-hand data validation, the actual total efficiency of 64%, therefore, with the local sunshine hours 65% multiplied by the installed power to calculate the power generation closest to the real situation.


Second, the local subsidy policy
Local subsidies are another key issue in determining whether the project is viable. At present, the cost of photovoltaic power generation in most areas can not be compared with traditional energy sources such as thermal power, hydropower and so on. With the national subsidy of 0.42 yuan, most projects still do not have to attract, and local subsidies are especially important. An investment 7 years to recover the cost, interested people will not be more, in the policy support to support the project 4 years to recover the cost of investment will immediately rise. Since the central government to increase efforts to promote the healthy development of photovoltaic, the media reported a lot of local subsidies on the local photovoltaic power supply policy, whether the reports are misreading or distortion, in order to confirm the reliability, specifically for the report more, more efforts , In all aspects of walking in other provinces in Jiangxi and Anhui Province to confirm. Jiangxi Province Energy Bureau in the official website can see very eye-catching "million roof" activities column, which listed in June 2013 activities since the start of more than a dozen documents related to notice, which "Jiangxi Province million roof photovoltaic demonstration Project implementation plan "clearly stipulates that the approved phase of a demonstration project by 4 yuan / peak tile to give a one-time installation subsidies, two projects 3 yuan / peak tile subsidies, and the outside coverage of the situation is basically the same. In Anhui, the provincial Development and Reform Commission High Technology Department to accept telephone consultation, said the provincial government level policy is still under study, Hefei City in July 2013 has introduced support policies. In Hefei City Energy Bureau official website issued on the issuance of "Hefei photovoltaic power generation project construction and policy funds to promote the guidelines (temporary)" notice, which provides from the declaration, and network, measurement to the subsidy and a series of process details , But the specific amount of subsidies in the document is not directly given to the competent authorities Hefei City Energy Bureau Recruitment Department telephone consultation, a surname Song deputy director of the clear reply to the self-built photovoltaic power generation project to give a one-time 2 yuan / Tile subsidies and 0.25 yuan / kWh of electricity subsidies.
In addition to other telephone survey, many provinces NDRC phone is difficult to connect or difficult to identify the specific room or directly in charge of people, which connected the phone in Sichuan Province, Hubei Province, said the policy is still in the development.
Media coverage of the local PV power subsidies are:
Zhejiang Province in the country 0.42 yuan electricity subsidies on the basis of the provincial finance and other subsidies 0.1 yuan.
Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province in the country and the province on the basis of subsidies 0.2 yuan. The same time as the above-
Zhejiang Jiaxing: On the basis of the state and the province, the individual distributed project built in the PV industry park will receive subsidy of RMB 2.8 per subsidy for three years, and drop by 5 cents a year.
Zhejiang Tongxiang: on the basis of the state and the province, the installed capacity of more than 0.1 megawatts of demonstration projects according to the installed capacity of 1.5 yuan per watt to give a one-time award; and then the implementation of electricity subsidies for photovoltaic power generation, completed and put into operation two years before 0.3 yuan / kWh standard to give subsidies, the third to fifth year to 0.2 yuan / kWh standard subsidies.


I believe that in 2014, a large number of provincial and municipal levels of local matching subsidies will be introduced, will play a practical role in the development of domestic photovoltaic power generation.


Third, the effectiveness of calculation
There are many factors that affect the distributed PV power generation project. Several combinations of conditions can form several kinds of benefits. In order to simplify the idea, it is possible to simplify the generalization of the three types of power generation according to the five types of sunshine conditions. The state of the ground photovoltaic power plant by three categories of classification, where the distributed photovoltaic power generation according to the custom of the five categories of sunshine area classification, select the worst condition of the fifth class Sichuan and Guizhou region as an example to analyze.
Install cost
Unit installation costs: 1W = 9 yuan
1KW installed installation costs: 1KW = 9000 yuan
2. Annual electricity generation
Sichuan and Guizhou region sunshine hours: 1000-1400h / year
Take the average: 1200h / year
Power generation efficiency: 65%
1KW installed capacity: 1KW * 1200h * 65% = 780KWh
Annual income
Distributed power generation for industrial use is better than domestic use because savings are greater for electricity costs. All self-use than the power generation more efficient Internet, because the Internet is based on coal-fired desulfurization benchmark price, generally lower than the industrial electricity price and electricity grid electricity price. According to the majority of the provinces industrial, living, desulfurization level of the average value of the following values:
Coal desulfurization benchmark price of electricity measured value: 0.43 yuan / KWh
Electricity grid electricity price measured value: 0.6 yuan / KWh
Industrial power grid electricity price measurement value: 0.85 yuan / KWh
National full subsidy power generation unit price: 0.42 yuan / KWh
Bank deposit interest rate: 3.6%
Calculated by the above values.
Annual electricity income (Internet): 780 * (0.43 + 0.42) = 663 yuan
Annual electricity savings (for living): 780 * (0.6 + 0.42) = 795.6 yuan
Annual electricity savings (for industrial use): 780 * (0.85 + 0.42) = 990.6 yuan
Annual cost of capital: 9000 * 3.6% = $ 324
Annual income (Internet) = annual sales income and subsidies - capital costs = 663-324 = 339 yuan
Annual income (life) = annual savings in electricity and subsidies - capital costs = 795.6-324 = 471.6 yuan.
Annual income (for industrial use) = annual savings in electricity and subsidies - capital cost = 990.6-324 = 666.6 yuan.
4. Payback period
Sichuan-Guizhou distributed power generation project estimated investment recovery period:
Payback period (Internet) = 9000/339 = 26.5 years.
Payback period (life) = 9000/471. 6 = 19.1 years
Payback period (industry) = 9000/666. 6 = 13.5 years


Sichuan and Guizhou regions belong to Chinas five categories of sunshine resources in the worst sub-conditions of the fifth category, obviously not suitable for the development of photovoltaic power generation market. However, it should be noted that 1200 hours is only the majority of Sichuan and Guizhou in the average number of sunshine hours, many parts of the western Sichuan region can reach 2300-2700 hours, low-value areas of the basin 2-3 times, the benefits and the above estimates are Different, need to be another matter.


If the use of Shandong, Henan, northern Jiangsu, northern Anhui and other third categories of regional sunshine conditions replacement of the fifth category of sunshine conditions, the same token, Internet, living, industrial investment recovery period of 8.1 years, 6.4 years, 4.9 years. While the recovery period will be shorter in the second and second categories.
Chinas various types of regional distributed photovoltaic power generation comparison table (1KW)
 
If the third type of regional power generation projects are based on Hefei 2 yuan / W installed and 0.25 yuan / KWh power generation supporting subsidies to support the calculation, the payback period was reduced to 4.6 years, 3.8 years, 3.1 years. This calculation and the media reported that the owners of the "Hefei Industrial Zone, the distribution of the project is only 3 years" coincidence.
Conclusion: There are more than four categories of sunshine conditions in the country, distributed photovoltaic power generation for industrial use, in the absence of other local subsidies, 5 years or so to recover the investment; such as electricity for life will be extended to 6.4 years; A certain degree of local subsidies, back to this time can be reduced by up to half.
attachment1:
Undefined


Annex 2: annual solar radiation and solar radiation in various regions of the country