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The growth of the PV industry is reversing the signs of recovery from export-dependent recovery

Chinas PV industry in the past mainly rely on exports, to rely more on domestic consumer demand driven by the strategic shift in the past 2014 will be fully reflected, the industry signs of recovery. 2011 - 2013, Chinas PV companies have fallen into a loss or even the brink of bankruptcy situation, and now this situation has been initially reversed.

Planning: Zhang Liang Zhang Zhiwei Hu Xiaoying Yuan Yuan He Jun Xie Lan Written: Our reporter in the South


PV industry in 2014 to reverse the way to get rid of export recovery depends on signs of recovery


Preface


Just a few days ago, that legend will make Chinas photovoltaic industry "collapse" of the United States second "double reverse" final cut. But in addition to causing the individual media "fuss", but still menacing it, but was the collective neglect of Chinas photovoltaic enterprises, so embarrassing. It is no wonder that as early as 2013, Chinas new PV installed capacity reached 12.92 GW. And although the United States also ranks among the worlds first three, but its district 4.8 GW new installed capacity in front of China is still a bit shabby.


In 2014, the National Energy Board has set a 14 GW target for Chinas new PV installed capacity. In contrast, a recently released statistics show that the first 10 months of this year, the new installed capacity of the PV is less than 2 GW.


Obviously, unlike 2013, todays PV industry in China is no longer dependent on the US or European markets. And this is with the General Secretary of Xi Jinping proposed the Chinese economy "new normal" complement each other: Chinas economy to rely more on domestic consumer demand pull, to avoid dependence on exports of external risks.


"Growing up trouble"


Chinas PV repeatedly double containment


Chinas photovoltaic industry is indeed worthy of pride.


According to the "China Photovoltaic Industry Development Yellow Book (2013 - 2014)" records, since 2010, Chinas polysilicon investment per kilogram fell by 47%, per kilogram of polysilicon integrated energy consumption fell by 35%, polysilicon enterprises per capita annual output increased 165%, the backbone enterprises by-product comprehensive utilization rate reached more than 99%; per megawatt by silicon cell investment fell more than 55% per watt battery silicon consumption decreased by 25%, the backbone of single crystal, polycrystalline and silicon-based thin film batteries Conversion efficiency increased from 16.5%, 16%, 6% to 19%, 17.5%, 10%; PV power system investment from 25 yuan / watt to 9 yuan / watt.


However, as the "new normal", the Chinese economy to focus on resolving the "growth of trouble", as experienced a rapid growth, China PV is also facing a lot of "trouble."


Chinas rapid rise of photovoltaic, so that the other side of the PV "originator" felt an unprecedented unease. They hope to curb the development of Chinas PV, continue to master the global photovoltaic technology, control the markets right to speak.


October 2011, the United States took the lead on Chinas exports to the United States photovoltaic panels launched a "double reverse" investigation, set off against the first round of Chinas photovoltaic hit.


In March, May, the US Department of Commerce has initially ruled to the Chinese photovoltaic cells to impose a minimum of 2.9%, the highest 4.73% of the punitive countervailing duties, and the initial ruling to the Chinese photovoltaic cell collection of the lowest 31.14%, the highest 249.96% Punitive anti-dumping duties; in November 2012, the United States unexpectedly announced the "Chinas photovoltaic cells will be levied 18.32% to 249.96% anti-dumping duties, and 14.78% to 15.97% countervailing duties" final results.


Following the Americans, the EU in September 2012 first released the "proposed to China PV products (crystalline silicon PV modules, batteries and silicon) anti-dumping investigation," the wind, and in November 2012 officially announced to China Photovoltaic anti - dumping investigation on file.


Fortunately, in the Premier of the State Council, Li Keqiangs attention and personally sits under the command of the town, in July 2013, the Ministry of Commerce came the good news, the two sides finally on Chinas EU PV products trade dispute reached a price commitment: 2015, Chinas European imports of photovoltaic products The price limit will be set to 0.56 euros / watt, the total is limited to 7 gwalt / year. Compared to the beginning of "Chinas EU PV products will be levied 47.6% punitive tariffs" is expected, "price commitment" is definitely a happy result.


But for Chinas photovoltaic containment did not stop there, January 23, 2014, the US Department of Commerce announced that it will launch for Chinas exports to the US PV products, anti-dumping, countervailing investigations, and simultaneously launched for Chinas Taiwan lost to the United States photovoltaic Product anti - dumping investigation.


And the above mentioned US PV for the first time, "double reverse" is different, in the second "double reverse", the US Department of Commerce set the scope of the survey contains ingots, wafers, batteries, components And so almost all of the crystalline silicon photovoltaic products.


In this way, China PV "in the third place (mainly for China Taiwan) for deep processing, assembly, and then exported to the United States to avoid tariffs," the road, has also been completely blocked.


June 3 this year, the US Department of Commerce announced that the initial ruling on mainland China exported to the United States crystalline silicon photovoltaic products received excessive government subsidies, subsidies for the range of 18.56% to 35.21%; July 25, the US Department of Commerce has announced the Chinas crystalline silicon photovoltaic products anti-dumping preliminary results, identified in mainland China and China Taiwan exports to the United States crystalline silicon photovoltaic products dumping behavior, of which Chinas mainland products dumping margin of 26.33% to 165.04%, Taiwans product dumping margin of 27.59% to 44.18%.


December 17, the US Department of Commerce announced the Chinese PV "double reverse" the final result, which finds that Chinas exports to the United States crystalline silicon photovoltaic products dumping margin of 26.71% to 165.04%, the subsidy rate of 27.64% to 49.79% ; China Taiwans exports to the United States crystalline silicon photovoltaic products dumping range of 11.45% to 27.55%.


According to the plan, the ruling was put into effect (customs officially levy "double reverse" tariff), also need to obtain the US International Trade Commission final ruling (to be announced on January 29, 2015). But the history of Kam, the US International Trade Commission had never overturned the US Department of Commerces ruling. In the industry view, the United States twice the "double reverse" situation is almost irreversible.


Policy support multi-faceted flowers


Distributed power generation problems are solved


The face of the road "double reverse" siege, stimulate domestic demand is clearly a very effective countermeasure.


Began in March 2013, the management of the photovoltaic industry to support the healthy development of high-standard, large-scale, strong efforts to introduce a series of New Deal, which covers the field of photovoltaic industry upstream and downstream, and network, financial support, etc. , Almost nothing.


And the most worth mentioning, but set off a large ground power plant, distributed photovoltaic system construction boom "on the role of price leverage to promote the healthy development of photovoltaic industry," and "on the distributed photovoltaic power generation project management approach Notice".


Among them, the National Development and Reform Commission in August 2013 issued "on the role of price leverage to promote the healthy development of photovoltaic industry," a clear: "centralized photovoltaic power plant is divided into three categories (according to the length of sunshine), respectively, the implementation of 0.9 Yuan, 0.95 yuan, 1 yuan price standard (Internet price) "; and the National Energy Board in November 2013 issued" on the distributed photovoltaic power generation project management interim notice "is clear:" distributed photovoltaic power generation project Electricity price subsidy standard is set at 0.42 yuan per kilowatt. "


In the series of policies under the joint action, 2013, China to achieve annual new PV installed capacity of 12.92 GW, ranking first in the world. At the same time, the National Energy Board also has for the 2014 to develop "the new record of the total size of 14 Giva (distributed 8 Giva, photovoltaic power plant 6 GW)" aggressive.


Compared to 2013 Chinas new photovoltaic power generation capacity of 12.92 GW, of which only 0.5 GW of distributed photovoltaic, the National Energy Board to develop the 2014 target, but plans to share the proportion of new PV installed capacity from last year, 6.2% , Jumped to nearly 60% this year.


For a long time, compared to the centralized ground power plant in full swing, distributed photovoltaic is not lucky, subject to "surplus Internet" income is much lower than the "spontaneous use" income, and "spontaneous use" part of the power generation, electricity revenue There is no guarantee (the owner can be used) and other reasons, hard to find financial support, has always been the most distributed photovoltaic project headache.


However, in September 2014, the National Energy Board issued "on the further implementation of distributed photovoltaic power generation policy notice" to make this dilemma greatly improved.


The notice pointed out that the future, the use of building roofs and ancillary venues to build a distributed photovoltaic power generation project, in the project record can choose "spontaneous self-use, the Internet" or "full Internet" in a model, "full Internet "The total amount of electricity generated by the project by the grid companies in accordance with the local photovoltaic power plant benchmarking price of the acquisition; and in the ground or the use of agricultural greenhouses and other non-power consumption facilities to 35 kV and below the voltage level access to the grid (northeast 66 kV and The following), a single project capacity of not more than 20,000 kilowatts and the power generation mainly in the grid point of the power station area of the photovoltaic power station project, into the distributed photovoltaic power generation scale management, the implementation of local photovoltaic power plant benchmarking price.


In the industry view, the New Deal desalinated the distributed photovoltaic "spontaneous use" and "surplus Internet" boundaries, improve the benefits of the Internet.


Shandong desulfurization electricity price of 0.4469 yuan / kWh as an example, before the release of the New Deal, distributed photovoltaic project power generation income of about 0.8 yuan / / (0.4469 yuan / kWh plus national distributed subsidies 0.42 yuan / kWh tax) Its lower than can reach 1.2 yuan / degree or so spontaneous use of income (general industrial electricity 0.85 yuan / kWh plus national distributed subsidies 0.42 yuan / kWh).


After the implementation of the New Deal, the distributed level of the Internet income level may reach 1 yuan / degree (three categories of solar energy resources can enjoy 1 yuan / kWh), than the current about 0.8 yuan / degree higher than 25% about.


In fact, in our "East lack, Xisheng" power pattern, the focus on the development of distributed photovoltaic is even more difficult. First of all, the eastern coastal areas of high cost, coupled with poor lighting conditions, almost impossible to create a large number of large-scale ground power plant conditions (adequate sunshine and cheap land). Second, in the power grid construction period is long, put into the premise of large-scale construction of photovoltaic power plants in the western region, will face the bottleneck of power grid construction lag, power station "sun", "abandoned light" and so on. At the same time, West to East, but also cause serious loss of electricity (West to East power loss up to 30%).


PV leading crisis gradually go


LDK key business discontinued two years after the resumption of production


"New normal", the Chinese photovoltaic from the "mainly dependent on exports" to "more dependent on domestic consumer demand pull" strategic change, and sure enough to achieve the "drug to the disease" effect. And the domestic market vigor and vitality, and soon put the "positive energy" passed to all aspects of Chinas photovoltaic.


Not long ago, the National Energy Board released the first three quarters of 2014, photovoltaic power generation profiles show that Chinas new photovoltaic power generation capacity reached 3.79 GW, of which the new photovoltaic power plant capacity of 2.45 GW, Distributed photovoltaic grid capacity of 1.34 GW; the national photovoltaic power generation capacity of about 18 billion kwh, equivalent to 2013 annual power generation capacity of 200%.


And "2011 - 2013, Chinas PV companies have fallen into a loss, individual or even brink of bankruptcy" situation, and now has been reversed.


"Chinas photovoltaic industry development yellow book (2013 - 2014)" recorded data show that by the end of 2013, Chinas polysilicon enterprises in the beginning of the seven to 15, most of the battery backbone enterprises profitability, the main business The fourth quarter gross margin more than 15%, part of the annual net profit of enterprises. In 2014, the performance of Chinas PV companies will be further improved.


In February this year, in order to resolve the problem of overseas debt, another has also been on the verge of bankruptcy of Chinas PV leader - LDK LDK in its registered place (in the case of Chinas PV leader) Cayman through the "temporary winding up" approach, launched an overseas debt restructuring.


The reorganization involves a debt of more than $ 700 million, including mainly $ 17 billion in high-yield bonds (priority notes) issued by LDK in Singapore and LDK LDK (LDK registered in Cayman, operating polysilicon Business subsidiary) of a $ 240 million equity financing (preferred stock).


Eventually, after nearly 10 months, December 17, LDK LDK and senior notes holders and preferred shareholders of the reorganization of the transaction transactions. This marks the success of LDKs overseas debt restructuring. And this reorganization, LDK LDK received 99% of creditors support.


It is worth mentioning that in July this year, after more than two years after the shutdown, had LDK made a contribution to the Ma Hong silicon material factory to resume production. And once the time, the cumulative investment of about 12 billion yuan, full capacity can produce polysilicon 15,000 tons / year super-large monomer silicon material project, but also lead to LDK funding chain break the key to the LDK.


In the industry view, LDK LDK on the Ma Hong silicon plant for cold hydrogenation (reduce production costs) and make it back to production, as LDK LDK to boost the confidence of the capital market to achieve a positive cash flow layout, The key is that this layout is full of LDK LDK firm optimistic about the solar grade polysilicon market deep meaning.


Innovation is remarkable


"Homogenization" problem remains to be resolved


In the Chinese economy "new normal" proposed by General Secretary Xi Jinping, the most important content is the "continuous optimization and upgrading of economic structure", and "from factor-driven, investment-driven to innovation-driven." And this is the Chinese PV to healthy development, long-term to maintain the status of the market position.


2014 is gratifying that GCL-Poly began production in September silane fluidized bed polysilicon production line, has polysilicon production costs (full cost) control in the 10 US dollars / kg below. According to the previous plan, to achieve this cost target, need to wait until the second phase of the project put into operation (GCL Shixin silicon fluidized bed for a 12,000 tons / year, two 13,000 tons / year project will be produced in 2015).


It is reported that the silane fluidized bed 10 US dollars / kg polysilicon production costs, compared with the current cost-effective improved Siemens method reduced by nearly half, which is based on its low power consumption, production line investment costs lower characteristics. Compared with the improvement of the production line of about $ 2 billion per 10,000 tons of production lines, the silane fluidized bed is only $ 1 billion per tonne of production line.


In fact, prior to the silane fluidized bed polysilicon industrialization is facing a number of problems, such as how to ensure the high quality of polysilicon, and to achieve large-scale production. According to "Securities Daily